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DJIA10447.93  chart+127.83
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S&P 5001104.51  chart+14.41
2010-09-03 16:02

Don't Ignore Risk

RiskI’m always reading articles and listening to “financial gurus” who tell individuals ***with extra money*** not to pay down low interest rate debt.  Instead, the expert advises paying the minimum on mortgages and student loans so the difference can be invested in stocks.  In theory, this will give the individual greater returns, as the stock markets historical average of 10% trumps prepaying the lower interest debt.  On the surface this advice sounds logical, and perhaps even financially sophisticated; however, proponents of this method are completely ignoring risk.

By taking extra money and investing it in the stock market, one is forgoing a risk-free return on their money in favor of an investment that’s inherently risky.   Read More…

How Not To Invest For Retirement

Successful investing isn’t easy.  In addition to having a basic level of financial competency, successful investors must also exhibit a high degree of discipline and emotional control.  Without all three of these characteristics an investor’s returns are likely to disappoint.  After all, one can be as financially astute as Warren Buffett or George Soros; however, if he or she lacks the emotional control and poise to go against the herd then they’ll never have great success.

As a case study, I bring you the story of The Simkin family: Getting back on the retirement horse

“Jason and Patty Simkins, both 40, have saved next to nothing for retirement in the past year.  They were rattled by the rocky market, which caused the value of their portfolio to tumble 40% at its low point.”

“So when Jason switched jobs last fall… he neglected his new 401(k).  Saying, “I didn’t want to throw money into it if it was just going to be lost.”

“But now they’re disappointed to have missed out on additional gains from the market’s rebound.”

“Realizing they need to catch up on retirement (and, with two kids, save for college), they’re ready to put a toe back in the water.”

Read More…

Gen Y Investor Weekly Roundup: Bandwagon Edition

It seems that every other blog in the universe does some sort of weekly roundup post.  These weekly roundups contain a great variety of links that the blogger deems worth of their reader’s attention.  Not wanting to be the last one on the bandwagon, I’ve decided to join the roundup mix.  Each week starting today, I’ll be dedicating a post to the most interesting, educational and newsworthy links I come across in my travels.  With any luck, you may even find them enjoyable as well.  And without further adieu here is this week’s links…

How Dirty Are Hedge Funds? – Where do you draw the line between in-depth research and non-public information?  After all hedge fund investors aren’t paying managers 2 and 20 for just average results.  This is indeed a slippery slope.  (@ Forbes)

The New No-Jobs Generation: It’s Really Not That Bad – The class of 2009 graduated into one of the worst job markets since the great depression.  Those that have found jobs are settling for less pay, and many others haven’t been as lucky.  But does this gloomy situation have a silver lining?  (@ Forbes)

Pay Yourself First – Saving money that’s left over at the end of the month doesn’t work out well.  We have bills, loans and other expenses that empty our wallets just as quickly as they get filled.  If we do manage to have some dough left over, we tend to blow it on fun and entertainment.  The answer to this dilemma is to pay yourself first.  (@ Get Rich Slowly)

Buffett's Thoughts On Wall Street Pay

BonusesA year has past since the credit crisis wreaked havoc on the world’s financial system.  During that year of reckoning, firms on Wall Street that were lucky enough to survive (or should I say get bailed out) reduced annual bonuses by nearly 45% from the prior year.

Fast forward one year and my have things changed.  Now, a mere 13 months since facing death, these same firms are set to payout a near record $26 billion in year end bonuses.  Many feel this is outrageous…some argue it’s not.  I however am going to defer to my man Warren Buffett who says: Wall Street Pay Must Have “Downside”

“You have to put in something where there is downside to people who really mess up large institutions.”

“Too many people have walked away from the troubles they have created for society, not just for their own institution, and they have walked away rich.”

“What you have to change in Wall Street, is you have to make sure that in addition to carrots, there are sticks.”

“And it can’t be a one-way street where they are making ungodly amounts of money when things are good and then they move on to someplace else for a while when things are bad.”

I believe that Buffett has a reasonable take on Wall Street pay.  As a capitalist, I have no problems with large salaries and multi-million dollar bonuses.  However, I do have a problem when such pay packages are doled out by companies who took a taxpayer funded bailout.  There has to be a better way of insuring that failure goes unrewarded and that those who act unethically get punished.

October 2009 Is Eerily Similar To October 2007

Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it, that’s how the old cliché goes.  As the major stock indexes continue their march higher, some find that these iconic words of caution are particularly relevant in our current environment.  The argument can be made that the fundamentals unfolding presently are uncannily similar to those of October 2007 when the market topped out and went on to plunge 50%.

From Minyanville: October 2007 Shows Us How This Rally Ends

“I reexamined the bubble peak of October 2007 and “surprise, surprise” — it’s déjà vu all over again. If you recall, in October 2007 the US dollar was tanking and oil was ripping higher. The talk was about how the dollar had nowhere to go but down.

Sound familiar? It should because the dollar is tanking again and the talk is how the whole world is turning away from the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Gold today is also making new highs just like it was back in October 2007, on the back of a weaker dollar.

The stock market in October 2007 was making new highs as the dollar tanked. It feels like déjà vu to me because today we have the dollar tanking, oil and gold breaking out, and stocks making new yearly highs.”

Read More…

Researching Stocks: Calculating Free Cash Flow

dollarToday is the first of a series of posts dedicated to properly researching stocks.  As you’re probably aware, it’s always important to do proper research on a company before purchasing shares of its stock.  Buying a stock without doing your homework is akin to jumping into the cockpit of a plane without proper training.  In either situation, you’re bound to get hurt.

What is free cash flow?

Free cash flow is one of the greatest ways to measure the profitability of a company’s business.  Put simply, free cash flow is the money that a business has left over after paying employees, expenses, debt, taxes and capital expenditures.  Free cash flow is often used to measure profits because it is harder to manipulate than earnings per share or net income.  It is also excellent at communicating the degree to which a company can reward its shareholders via dividends and share buybacks.

How do you calculate it?

In order to calculate the free cash flow of a company you need a copy of their statement of cash flows.  Luckily this information is easy to find and can be accessed in the firm’s 10-Q and 10-K filings. You can also find this quickly at Yahoo Finance.  I’ll now run through an example with one of my current investments…below is the cash flow statement for Heinz (HNZ)… Read More…

Gen Y Investors View Investing As Fun

Apparently the majority of 20-something investors view the process of investing as fun.  This is quite an interesting finding  seeing as though we just lived through one of the biggest market busts in history.

Kimberly Palmer of the U.S. News & World Report writes: Gen Y: Investing Is Fun, Not Scary

“Online brokerage company Scottrade is out with some surprising findings about 20-something investors: It turns out they consider investing an enjoyable activity. Unlike older generations, they’re more likely to manage their money on their own and to feel confident that they will recover their losses from the recession. In fact, one in three of those surveyed said they invest because it’s fun, an increase from about one in four last year.”

“Other experts and surveys have suggested that the financial crisis has left Generation Y permanently scarred — untrusting of banks and financial institutions, and less likely to invest in the stock market as a result. But this survey suggests 20-somethings aren’t all retreating to their apartments to stuff bills in dark places. At least a significant portion of them are jumping into the stock market, which, given historical patterns about returns following market dips, is probably a good idea.”

I guess the caveat here is that the survey consisted of Gen Yers who are currently investors.  As opposed to a random sampling of Generation Y in general.  I think if you were to sample a number of random 20-somethings you would definitely find a more cautious stance towards investing. Read More…